The sharp correction in equity markets has taken a toll on mid-and-small cap stocks that have underperformed their large-cap peers. Thus far in calendar year 2022 (CY22), the mid-and-small cap indexes on the BSE have slipped over 8 per cent and 7 per cent respectively, as compared to a fall of around 6 per cent in the S&P BSE Sensex. While investors dumped mid-and small-cap stocks as the markets remained choppy over the past few weeks, analysts still expect these two segments to see good investor interest from a medium-to-long term perspective.
'The selling in India may emerge as soon as the RBI reverses its interest rate stance.'
Tesla Inc chief Elon Musk is set to acquire micro-blogging site Twitter for about $44 billion. Back home, India Inc, too, is seeing aggressive merger and acquisition (M&A) activity with PVR-Inox and HDFC-HDFC Bank announcing their mergers recently. While Axis Bank recently acquired Citi India's India retail business, reports suggest Larsen & Toubro Infotech (LTI) and Mindtree could be eyeing a merger.
'Thankfully, most investors in India have now seen through this false narrative and are once again deploying their hard-earned money.
'The recent correction in indices has made the markets cheaper to invest for the long term.'
HDFC and HDFC Bank's merger - touted as India's biggest-ever corporate merger - pumped up shares of the two entities on the bourses. Shares of Housing Finance Development Corporation (HDFC) skyrocketed 9 per cent while those of HDFC Bank zoomed 10 per cent. In comparison, the benchmark S&P BSESensex and the Nifty50 indices settled 2.2 per cent higher on Monday.
Consumption of gold is the highest among middle-income households - those with annual income between Rs 2 lakh and Rs 10 lakh - who account for an average of 56 per cent of gold sales over the last five years, according to a nationwide survey conducted by India Gold Policy Centre (IGPC) at the Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad (IIM-A). "Per capita consumption is highest among the rich, but total volume still rests with the middle-income group. "With increasing income, there is an increasing propensity to consume gold, although the share of gold in the portfolio does not increase with the same proportion of income," the survey report says.
Fundraising activity in the upcoming financial year 2022-23 may even surpass FY22 when 52 Indian companies raised a record Rs 1.11 trillion via initial public offerings (IPOs). According to a note by PRIME Database, 54 companies (including LIC) plan to raise Rs 1.4 trillion and currently hold the Securities and Exchange Board of India's (Sebi's) approval. Another 43 companies, the note said, are looking to raise about Rs 81,000 crore but waiting for Sebi nod.
Foreign portfolio investor (FPI) flows into India may remain tepid in 2022, said a recent note by Goldman Sachs, who now peg the foreign portfolio investment into India at $5 billion in 2022, down from their earlier forecast of $30 billion with risks skewed to the downside. "There has been $15 billion of equity outflows YTD in India already, and the IPO of the largest insurance company has been pushed out. "Additionally, with no mention of India's inclusion in global bond indices in the Union Budget, there are risks to our already conservative base case assumption of an announcement of India's likely inclusion into the GBI-EM Global Diversified Bond Index in Q4-2022," wrote Andrew Tilton, Goldman Sachs' chief Asia-Pacific economist in a co-authored report with Santanu Sengupta and Suraj Kumar.
'Valuations are very attractive, and most companies are cash-rich with strong dividend yields.'
The faster-than-expected rise in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve (US Fed) shook global financial markets in early 2022. And now the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine has lifted commodity prices, with Brent crude oil hitting a 14-year high of $139 a barrel in intraday trade. All these developments have sent the equity markets across the world into a tailspin.
While HDFC Bank has vowed to recoup its lost market share in the credit card segment in three to four quarters by aggressively sourcing new cards, brokerages believe it is a little hard to come by, given how competitive the landscape has become, with other players in the market becoming equally aggressive to gain market share. Kotak Institutional Equities in its report on Monday said, "We would like to believe that the recovery in market share is likely to be gradual, if any. "All the key players, including Axis Bank, are now willing to expand their credit card portfolios as they have tested quite well against Covid-19."
Gold prices have surged nearly 18 per cent, so far, in the calendar year 2022 (CY22) to around $2,050 per ounce against the backdrop of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and there is more headroom over the next few months, believe analysts at Goldman Sachs who expect the yellow metal to become costlier by another 25 per cent to $2,500 an ounce by the year-end. Goldman Sachs, earlier, had raised its 12-month gold price forecast to $2,150 per ounce considering that an impending US growth slowdown would lead to increased concerns of a US recession and incentivise 300 tonnes of inflows into gold ETFs. At the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine tensions, Goldman Sachs had suggested the resultant rally in commodities could deteriorate the developed market (DM) growth-inflation mix, increase concerns of a American recession, and push gold ETF inflows to 600 tonnes and, in turn, lift gold prices to $2,350 an ounce in 12 months.
'Earning expectations remain strong.'
Investors and companies should brace for higher commodity prices over the next few weeks in the backdrop of Russian troops attacking Ukraine on Thursday. Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden threatened new sanctions against Russia for an act of aggression against Ukraine. All this, analysts believe, can push prices of key commodities such as crude oil, ammonia, urea, potash, and phosphates higher.
Every 10 per cent rise in crude oil price will shave off around 0.2 percentage point (pp) from India's GDP growth and widen the current account by 0.3 per cent, says Nomura.
A lot of mid and small-caps are in the bubble zone and command high valuation and have corrected sharply.
Given that there has been no negative news flow around Zomato, analysts believe it's time to lap up the shares at lower levels.
Analysts caution against volatility and recommend buying stocks of companies that are on strong fundamental footing that have been beaten down badly in the recent carnage.
'The markets have corrected almost 8-9 per cent from their highs, so one can accumulate quality stocks at reasonable prices.'
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